A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit

The current debate in the U.S. Human Spaceflight Program focuses on the development of the next generation of man-rated heavy lift launch vehicles. While launch vehicle systems are of critical importance for future exploration, a comprehensive analysis of the entire exploration infrastructure is required to avoid costly pitfalls at early stages of the design process. This paper addresses this need by presenting a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework for integrated architectural analysis of future in-orbit infrastructure for human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The paper is structured in two parts. The first part consists of an expert elicitation study to identify objectives for the in-space transportation infrastructure. The study was conducted between November 2011 and January 2012 with 15 senior experts involved in human spaceflight in the United States and Europe. The elicitation study included the formation of three expert panels representing exploration, science, and policy stakeholders engaged in a 3-round Delphi study. The rationale behind the Delphi approach, as imported from social science research, is discussed. Finally, a novel version of the Delphi method is presented and applied to technical decision-making and systems architecting in the context of human space exploration. The second part of the paper describes a tradespace exploration study of in-orbit infrastructure coupled with a requirements definition exercise informed by expert elicitation. The uncertainties associated with technical requirements and stakeholder goals are explicitly considered in the analysis. The outcome of the expert elicitation process portrays an integrated view of perceived stakeholder needs within the human spaceflight community. Needs are subsequently converted into requirements and coupled to the system architectures of interest to analyze the correlation between exploration, science, and policy goals. Pareto analysis is used to identify architectures of interest for further consideration by decision-makers. The paper closes with a summary of insights and develops a strategy for evolutionary development of the exploration infrastructure of the incoming decades. The most important result produced by this analysis is the identification of a critical irreducible ambiguity undermining value delivery for the in-space transportation infrastructure of the next three decades: destination choice. Consensus on destination is far from being reached by the community at large, with particular reference to exploration and policy stakeholders. The realization of this ambiguity is a call for NASA to promote an open forum on this topic, and to develop a strong case for policy makers to incentivize investments in the human spaceflight industry in the next decades

A framework for space systems architecting under stakeholder objectives ambiguity

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 238-251).Matching high ambitions with scarce resources is one of the primary challenges of the aerospace industry, on par with the technical challenges of developing new technology. The challenge is further complicated in space exploration, by its own nature aimed at exploring the unknown. Stakeholder objectives are often unclear due to business cases highly exploratory in nature. Further ambiguity emerges from disagreement between stakeholders and decision-makers called to formulate scientific, technological and policy requirements for new systems. This thesis develops a structured approach to develop recommendations to system architects concerned with the design of unprecedented large aerospace infrastructures for which objectives are ambiguous or unclear. The approach is composed of three parts. The first part consists in a novel taxonomy of ambiguity in systems design that classifies ambiguities in reducible and irreducible components. Building on this taxonomy, the second part of this thesis develops a Descriptive Systems Architecting Management Framework (SA-MF) to distill canonical forms of ambiguity management from the literature in political science, finance and economics, management, and engineering design. The third part of the dissertation presents a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework (DB-SAF). DB-SAF objectives are to identify sources of ambiguity in the value delivery and tradespace exploration processes, characterize and model sources of ambiguity, mitigate ambiguities through effective systems architecting strategies, integrate the analysis of upstream and downstream architecting processes, and to assess the impact of requirement ambiguities on the architectural tradespace. The proposed systems architecting approach has been applied to three case studies: the assessment of a robotic Mars Sample Return Campaign, the study of in-space transportation infrastructure for future human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit, and the retrospective analysis of satellite constellations for commercial applications. The application of the proposed approach to three different disciplinary fields demonstrates its broad applicability for architecting complex aerospace systems. This dissertation integrates methods from systems engineering, systems architecting, multivariate statistical analysis, uncertainty modeling, economics, management science and social science research. It allows decision-makers to visualize an architectural synthesis of aerospace systems, understanding adverse impacts of ambiguity, and supporting negotiations among stakeholders for efficient compromise in systems architecting.by Alessandro Aliakbargolkar.Ph.D

Architecture Study of Low Earth Orbit Commercial Satellite Data Relay Systems

This paper presents a systems architecture methodology that has been developed to analyse architectures for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) commercial satellite data relay systems, here named as Earth Orbiting Support Systems (EOSS). LEO relay constellations are crucial to provide affordable services to a whole range of missions for which traditional GEO data relay is not an option, due to antenna size or link capacity constraints. These missions are becoming more relevant in the space business nowadays due to the increasing role taken by small satellites in Earth Observation and Earth Science, in addition to the multitude of conventional Earth Observation spacecraft operating in Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbits. The proposed methodology enumerates, evaluates, and downselects EOSS architectures for more detailed design work. The methodology is demonstrated on two case studies for a varying number of customers. Pareto efficient EOSS constellations are identified and illustrated for each case study. Designers can use the proposed model to better understand which pricing strategy and customer target fits their constellation project, and to architect their system accordingly choosing from a variety of Pareto optimal alternatives